[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 59.7W AT 03/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM NNW OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 78 NM E OF ST.
LUCIA MOVING W AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N56W TO 12N60W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM NEAR
13N31W TO 7N35W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND IS BEING UNDERCUT BY DRIER AIR OVER
THE W PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N85W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 15N86W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND
E GUATEMALA BETWEEN THE WAVE 88W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W EXTENDING ALONG 10N21W TO 11N26W THEN DIPS S OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 6N35W TO 6N43W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES TO 9N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROF BETWEEN 21W-28W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N17W TO 13N23W...FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 27W-36W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
43W-46W...AND S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
56W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER S
TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N
BETWEEN APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA AND VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR
27N85W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 92W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT BY SAT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL INTO THE
GULF ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER W CUBA
JUST E OF HAVANA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY
THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS
FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 20N80W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA
BETWEEN 73W-81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER PUERTO RICO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS A PORTION OF PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 78W-80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND SAT.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN BEFORE TURNING ON A MORE WNW TRACK SAT
NIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN AS A MINIMAL
HURRICANE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
THE W ATLC ALONG 32N79W INTO THE CARIBBEAN JUST E OF HAVANA
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS
FROM 31N79W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF THE TROUGH TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY THE
N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDS AT 03/0300 UTC FROM
28N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ALONG 24N79W THEN CONTINUING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN JUST E OF HAVANA GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N BETWEEN
73W-80W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 29N BETWEEN
65W-77W AND IS ANCHORED OVER PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N45W ALONG 27N59W TO A SECOND SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 29N63W TO
BEYOND 33N67W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N75W TO 33N69W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 22N58W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
TROUGH N OF 26N. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC WITH A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO EMERGE OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE W ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLC THROUGH SUN BEFORE MOVING W
OF THE AREA MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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