[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 021436
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF
INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING.  NOAA BUOY 41040...TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER...REPORTED 31 KT WINDS.  THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT
PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN
THE CYCLONE...SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER THE 1200
UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD SHOWED A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY JET
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE
AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SWIFT 17 KT.  A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN A
WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED.  THIS IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 13.0N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.4N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 13.8N  60.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 14.1N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 14.7N  66.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 15.7N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 17.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 18.5N  82.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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