[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 020841
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  IF THIS IS
THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.

LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 280/18.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH.  THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD HEADING.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.

UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 12.8N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 13.3N  55.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 13.7N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 14.0N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 14.6N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 15.7N  71.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 16.7N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA


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