[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 51.5W OR ABOUT
555 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE AREA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM NEAR
14N30W TO 8N31W MOVING WSW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE N PORTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS IN DRIER AIR DUE TO SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS
THE E ATLC. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 25N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER JAMAICA TO 12N78W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 20N16W EXTENDING ALONG 14N23W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 7N32W TO 8N4W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA AND WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROF BETWEEN
26W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER E
TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BRUSHES THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S TO OVER THE W
ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE GULF
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE FAR N GULF BY MON.
THE N PORTION OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SE GULF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH SW TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND NW OVER THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA W OF 80W AND S OF 17N W OF 86W TO
INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN MONA PASSAGE AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST W OF
75W IN COLOMBIA AND S OF 12N IN NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. CENTRAL
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY DAY BEAK THU AND CONTINUE WNW
THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 76W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 29N80W TO BEYOND 32N76W. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA S OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-75W AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
28N44W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BEYOND
32N50W TO 25N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 43W-68W. OTHERWISE A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A PAIR OF 1023 MB
HIGHS NEAR 32N38W AND 35N49W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF
SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC FROM 16N-24N E OF 60W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN SOME MON.
THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THU AND THE
FAR SW ATLC AND S FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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