[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 020240
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS WANED. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR CONVECTION
TO FLUCTUATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK AND DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONES. EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE
TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AS NOTED IN VARIOUS WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.2/32 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD....WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
120 H. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFDL MODEL TRACK THAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER DUE TO IT DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN FORECAST.

ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESS ABATES...
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE SYSTEM STILL
HAS A VERY ROBUST CIRCULATION AS NOTED IN RECENT SSMI AND AMSU
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
FORECAST MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 12.6N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 13.0N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 13.6N  56.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 14.2N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 14.7N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 15.8N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 16.8N  74.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 17.8N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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