[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011819
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N45W 13N47W...
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KT. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND/OR WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N29W 13N30W 9N30W.
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN LONG-TERM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE IT LEFT FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA. THE WAVE IS
EVIDENT IN THE TPW IMAGERY ALSO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 27W
AND 33W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N74W IN THE BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N75W AND 12N75W. THIS WAVE
ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
TPW DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
15N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W TO 12N25W 8N32W 10N41W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W. THE ITCZ IS NOT DISTINGUISHABLE AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W AND FROM
6N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N80W TO 29N79W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
27N78W...TO THE 24N80W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 20N84W...TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 26N82W 22N88W.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N FROM THE BAHAMAS TO 24N85W...
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. THE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM
27N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 24N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED WITH UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A 27N78W 24N80W 20N84W GULF OF HONDURAS
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N74W IN THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N75W AND 12N75W.
THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE TPW DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

ONE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 16N66W 11N68W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N73W
14N75W...INTO COASTAL COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 8N77W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE TWO
TROUGHS AND IT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGHS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N70W JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE
COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FOR THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N45W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N42W TO THE CENTER NEAR 27N45W TO 16N50W
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 33N BETWEEN 34W AND 56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN
43W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N TO 33N
BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
30N66W CYCLONIC CENTER...BETWEEN THE CENTER AND 20N...AND
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 27N45W
CENTER AND THE TROUGH THAT IS AROUND THE 24N80W FLORIDA STRAITS
CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS NEAR THE 30N66W CENTER FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...FROM HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN
65W AND 71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N49W 30N50W 25N54W.

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N36W. A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 32N49W 25N54W TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF 20N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
11N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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