[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N42W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
10N43W WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 955 NM
MILES E-SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
17N22W TO A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 12N25W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW
NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN DRIER AIR DUE
TO SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 22N70W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 17N72W TO 13N72W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN
67W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MOVED INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 21N16W EXTENDING ALONG 14N20W THROUGH THE 1014 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUING ALONG 10N31W TO 11N37W. THE ITCZ
STARTS W OF THE 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N45W 9N55W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 48W-58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 24W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF N OF LINE FROM FORT MYERS
FLORIDA ALONG 22N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AND ANCHORED OVER NE
TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE FAR S GULF CENTERED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
YUCATAN TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN NW TO TUXPAN MEXICO
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SE GULF WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM FLORIDA BAY NEAR
25N81W TO 23N87W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO S OF 20N E OF
93W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS NE
FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND CEDAR KEY TO 26N87W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N87W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W AND
EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 16N69W TO
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W PROVING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 73W. THE
ACTIVITY OVER NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND WED THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRI TO W OF THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NE
FLORIDA GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
32N W OF 75W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
28N76W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 28N BETWEEN
55W-75W AND ANCHORED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W
AND ALSO EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N45W AND
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 26N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 42W-47W AND FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 53W-61W.
OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A 1023
MB HIGH NEAR 32N63W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AGAIN SHOWS YET ANOTHER
SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC FROM 16N-30N E OF 30W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE W
ATLC THROUGH SUN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH
THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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