[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W TO 3N23W 1N29W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 2N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N
BETWEEN 22W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 4N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO 4N20W 7N13W 7N30W 6N45W 9N52W 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS BETWEEN EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...NEAR
25N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL CUBA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN
74W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N83W. RAINFALL REPORTS FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND BROWARD
COUNTY FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC RANGED FROM
2 TO 4 INCHES. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING ON
30/1200 UTC IN THE BAHAMAS ARE 1.02 INCHES FOR FREEPORT...AND
0.59 INCHES FOR NASSAU. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 87W. HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE 25N79W CYCLONIC CENTER ALSO COVER THE
REST OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N80W TO 28N83W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
ARE BEING PUSHED FROM MEXICO EASTWARD...REACHING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
20 KNOT WINDS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING 8 FEET
TO THE EAST OF 88W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS BETWEEN EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...NEAR
25N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL CUBA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 74W
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO
CUBA NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N83W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING ON 30/1200 UTC
IS 1.36 INCHES FOR MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN
77W AND 80W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS CUBA STILL...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 80W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 25N79W UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
TO 16N75W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 18N70W TO WESTERN
PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W...
EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS BETWEEN EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...NEAR
25N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL CUBA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 74W
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING ON 30/1200 UTC ARE 1.02 INCHES FOR
FREEPORT...AND 0.59 INCHES FOR NASSAU...BOTH REPORTS ARE FOR
THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 34N60W...TO JUST TO
THE NORTH OF BERMUDA...TO 32N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 32N70W BEYOND 32N75W TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N/34N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 23N TO 30N. THIS TROUGH
HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN
47W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N41W TO 14N46W
AND 10N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N38W TO 24N39W TO 12N44W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THREE AREAS
OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET. ONE AREA
IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE OTHER TWO AREAS ARE TO THE EAST OF
50W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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