[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
TO 5N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 3N26W 2N33W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 1S40W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND
30W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND BEYOND
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N81W TO 23N83W NEAR CUBA. THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY LINES OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR THE SPECIFIC DETAILS
REGARDING 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE
WEST OF 92W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...ALONG 10N77W
11N80W 12N82W 13N83W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.
SIMILAR STRONG PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN
73W AND 75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA DURING THE TIME FROM
27/1115 UTC UNTIL 27/1515 UTC. OTHER CELLS BEGAN DEVELOPING
IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL PLAINS FROM 9N TO 11N AS THE NORTHERN
COLOMBIA PRECIPITATION STARTED TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT CURRENTLY IS IN THE WATER HAS MAINTAINED
ITS INTENSITY IN THE SAME GEOGRAPHICAL AREA MORE OR LESS SINCE
27/1115 UTC. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO
9 FEET NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET ALSO...ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W
AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFAT2 HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...AND THE MIAOFFNT3 OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W FROM 15N
TO 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA FOR THE TIME PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
27/1200 UTC WAS 2.34 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS... AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 84W...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 48W. THE
WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS AREA FEEDS INTO
THE 32N45W 23N47W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT
IS BETWEEN 70W AND 84W...ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA
TO THE BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE LINES 28N60W-20N68W AND 30N74W-28N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W TO THE SOUTH OF 30N74W 28N80W.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 31N57W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N57W TO 25N64W
AND 21N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE
REACHING PUERTO RICO ALSO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WITH THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 19N39W 12N40W INTERRUPTS THE COMPLETELY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N47W TO
23N47W WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 32N20W TO 24N30W TO
11N33W WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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