[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N83W TO A BROAD
BASE NEAR 20N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGHING WITH NW FLOW LOCATED WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT FILTERS TO THE
SURFACE AS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 29N91W WITH CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT INFLUENCE A MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH LIGHT E-SE
WINDS BEGINNING TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E-SE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ABC ISLANDS
NEAR 12N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
CONCENTRATED TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS NE
HISPANIOLA ACROSS JAMAICA TO 18N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED
OVER HISPANIOLA THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N72W TO 16N75W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING BETWEEN 71W-79W...WITH THE MOST INTENSE
TSTM ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT UNDER CLEAR AND MOSTLY FAIR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO CANADA
EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
U.S. COAST AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THIS FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE
MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TWO BOUNDARIES REMAIN AND
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN BOUNDARY
IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N65W...NEAR BERMUDA...
TO 25N67W TO NE HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND
OVER THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 57W-68W. THE
SECOND BOUNDARY WEST OF THE FRONT IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 28N75W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING OF
THIS TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER
EAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N29W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N44W IS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 34N46W TO 30N47W TO 26N45W TO
22N47W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN
39W-46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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