[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 28W...THEN WSW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN
24W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 27W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY WESTERLY TO SW FLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED THIS EVENING ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ALMOST CLEAR SKIES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W TO NEAR 24N93W. THIS FRONT IS
MOVING AT ABOUT 20 KTS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW
IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. HIGH VALUES OF
MOISTURE ARE ALSO OBSERVED IN THIS REGION ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION S OF 12N W OF 76W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE N CENTRAL BASIN ACROSS HAITI ALONG 18N73W TO
NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. DESPITE THE
EXTENSION OF THE FRONT AXIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND SRN
COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-75W. NORTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED W OF THE FRONT...WHILE  SSE WINDS
UP TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED E OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD IF AT ALL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N70W AND EXTENDS S-SW TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AXIS. TO THE E OF THIS FRONT...A SECOND DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 28N67W ALONG 22N68W INTO THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W. DESPITE THE FRONT
BEING LABELED AS DISSIPATING AND ITS CURRENT POSITION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM E OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 32N63W TO 25N67W TO 20N72W.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEST ASSOCIATED TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A WEAK ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N43W TO
20N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. OTHERWISE...A STRONG 1030 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE ERN ATLC E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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