[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 4N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
4N13W TO 2N30W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 15W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO....
AT 1500 UTC...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA NEAR
23N81W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
FRONT. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BE INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN SIX HOURS. ALSO EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20
KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO FOLLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA
NEAR 23N81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. LIGHT 10-15
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...INLAND N
COLOMBIA...AND INLAND NW VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE ...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N75W. ALSO EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
AND E CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 999 MB LOW IS E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR
30N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR VERO
BEACH. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 31N76W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT
25N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE
SQUALL LINE. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
34N57W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N41W TO 23N47W. RAIN AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N28W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC FRONT
TO BE NEAR 30N72W WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOME STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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