[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO
1N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 1S30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
6W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-2S
BETWEEN 10W-25W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-4S
BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC
PRODUCING 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OFF THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS ALONG 29N93W 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF
THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 95W-97W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHEARLINE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N60W TO 14N73W NEARLY
STATIONARY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STEADILY RISING. MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA... CENTRAL CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W HONDURAS
...GUATEMALA...AND S MEXICO. A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...MORE RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N...AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 30N45W TO 24N45W TO 19N50W TO 16N56W. A SHEARLINE
CONTINUES TO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N60W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. A 1036
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE THE AZORES NEAR 39N27W. FURTHER
S...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
35N52W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH RAIN
AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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