[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N07W TO
02N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N12W TO 03N25W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W THEN TO 01S47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 26W-30W...
AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD FROM TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED W OF 90W IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT AS
MOIST LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO FUEL A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX
SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THIS IS RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO
SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-75W. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
STRONGER NE FLOW EXPECTED TO BLEED THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA
PASSAGES SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS E OF 80W OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 35N65W TO 27N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W TO 23N60W TO
EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 360 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S-SE AS A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N77W IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
71W-78W...AND FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 78W-81W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE REMAINS
THE DOMINATE INFLUENCE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF
THE AZORES NEAR 36N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

HUFFMAN



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