[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W TO 7N20W AND 2N27W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N27W...TO 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 6N15W 4N18W 3N20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N
TO THE EAST OF 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS 78W...FROM 32N TO THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N95W 21N93W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS OFF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W. CLOUDINESS AND RAINSHOWERS
FROM 10/2045 UTC COVERED THE AREA FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 91W
AND 95W. THE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN THAT
SAME AREA ABOUT NINE HOURS LATER PRETTY MUCH HAVE DISAPPEARED.
NO 20 KNOT WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HAITI NEAR 18N73W...ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...TO 22N70W
TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 25N67W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 18N TO 26N
BETWEEN 59W AND 80W. PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GREATER ANTILLES...ARE COVERED BY
THIS FEATURE. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. SURFACE NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW THAT IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF 80W APPEARS TO BE PUSHING
SOME AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ONSHORE FROM
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS. NO 20 KNOT WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3 AND
MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W AND 90W...EVENTUALLY CURVING
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND EASTWARD TO THE EAST
OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE 32N55W 28N57W 25N61W STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. IT HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN
BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N65W...BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT
AND A 34N70W 31N74W ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 32N16W TO A 25N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 16N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 27N26W
25N24W 23N22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 32N
BETWEEN 15W AND 23W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W
27N48W TO 20N42W AND 12N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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