[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 3N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W
2N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS E OF 25W...AND WITHIN
80-160 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR E GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE OF CONVECTION DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE WRN ATLC TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF
ALONG THE TAMPA BAY AREA...SW TO NEAR 26N90W...THEN WNW TO THE
COAST OF TEXAS NEAR SAN ANTONIO BAY. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BRIEFLY ENTERING
THE GULF ALONG CAPE CORAL TO NEAR 25N84W WITH LIMITED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE SURFACE
FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF
THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION AND PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA TODAY KEEPING STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS
ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINING A TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE BASIN E OF
78W. TO THE W OF 78W...THE TRADEWIND FLOW SPLITS NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE OF THE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTHWESTWARD AGAINST THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA...PUSHING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM BETWEEN
79W-82W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE ERN CONUS
SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 31N76W TO ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
30N76W INTO FLORIDA ALONG WEST PALM BEACH GENERATING SIMILAR
CONVECTION WITHIN 40-70 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL SOON MOVE OVER THE FAR NW BAHAMAS. ASIDE THE
FRONTAL AND SURFACE TROUGH CONVECTION...THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO GENERATING SAME
ACTIVITY WELL TO THE E OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES N OF 27N W OF
67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 1025
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N42W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE EXTENDING SW ALONG 31N30W TO NEAR
25N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net