[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W TO 5N14W AND 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO
2N32W 3N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
TO THE EAST OF 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA BETWEEN 93W AND 106W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
27N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS IN LOUISIANA ABOUT 9 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N72W...TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A HINT OF A SMALL AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NEAR 16N87W
IN THE AREA OF NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
12N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS A REMNANT OF AN EARLIER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
21N60W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE NORTHERN MONA PASSAGE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
23N52W 20N58W 19N63W...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THE MOMENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 42W AND 70W. A TROUGH PASSES IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 28N49W 23N55W 21N60W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO
27N50W 22N60W AND 21N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS A REMNANT
OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS ALONG 30N45W 25N50W
21N60W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE NORTHERN MONA PASSAGE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 28N46W 23N52W...AND WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N52W 20N58W 19N63W...INTO THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A THIN LINE OF
CLOUDS IS ALONG 22N56W 21N66W 22N71W 23N74W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N72W. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N31W TO 25N39W AND 17N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING NEAR 30N79W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 36N71W 33N74W 30N76W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 19N28W TO 10N29W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THIS
TROUGH BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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