[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N
BETWEEN 15W-21W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ERN CONUS...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR IS
ACROSS THE BASIN...SEVERAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE FORMED
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ERN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA COASTLINE BETWEEN 87W-93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO TO THE S FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-91W. A SECOND BURST OF CONVECTION IS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THIS AREA
MAY ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN
FROM 23N88W TO 18N90W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1013 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N82W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN GULF. MAINLY SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN BESIDES IN THE
AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIMS THE NRN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA TO CUBA AND CONTINUING UP THE ERN
CONUS. MODERATE DRY AIR WITH SOME STREAMS OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVER WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
APPROACHING WRN CUBA. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. SOME LIGHTER WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
WHICH IS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
64W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT ARE IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS QUICKLY SINKING S INTO THE AREA ALONG
32N61W 29N71W 32N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W ALONG 27N55W 24N67W. MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E AND S OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 43W-50W...AND
WITHIN 100 NM E AND S OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED N OF 30N AHEAD OF THE WWD MOST FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1025 MB SURFACE
HIGH NEAR 32N35W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR
ERN ATLC FROM CENTRAL SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N15W TO
14N38W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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