[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FORM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N17W TO 2N24W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES
FROM 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 15W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF IS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. DEBRIS BLOW-OFF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WIDESPREAD TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER ERN MEXICO IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF
WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IN THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK 1015 MB
HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE ERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 27N86W...
KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LONG
RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS
EVENING...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AND KEEPING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
BACKING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LONG RANGE
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 31N77W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG
26N80W...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
26N W OF 75W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N45W TO 28N55W WITHIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS SE OF THIS DISSIPATING FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N42W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W TO THE FAR W ATLC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W AND EXTENDS SW
ALONG 27N26W TO 25N33W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
WRN ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC LATE MONDAY. THEN
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE W ATLC WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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