[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 302042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

...OPHELIA MOVING NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER WITH 115 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 63.0W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CORE OF OPHELIA EAST OF BERMUDA LATE
SATURDAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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