[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 301431
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

...OPHELIA WITH 115 MPH WINDS...BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF
THE 2011 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 62.8W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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