[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 34.8W AT 27/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 620 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 7
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SW SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS OF 15.5N34W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 31W-35W.

A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NW
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N57W
TO 20N59W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N47W TO 10N46W MOVING W 5-10
KT. WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT BECOMING LESS DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS WITH LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W TO 13N18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND STRETCHING FROM NE GEORGIA
ACROSS ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E
GULF EXTENDING AT 27/0300 UTC FROM SW GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE ALONG 29N84W TO FLORIDA BAY NEAR
25N82W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED OVER S
MEXICO. THE FINAL RESULT IS NEAR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE N OF
GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF S OF 26N E OF 90W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF W OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH
THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF WATERS FRI AND
EXTEND FROM FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS SAT. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE GULF FRI
AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF
77W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SMALL UPPER
LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 13N W OF 70W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATE WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLANDS FROM
SAINT LUCIA TO ANGUILLA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
WILL MOVE NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WED BEFORE
TURNING MORE NORTHERLY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N80W TO BEYOND 32N78W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA AND TO
THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM THE E TIP
OF CUBA ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND TO 28N79W. AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W ALONG 25N71W TO OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE PRODUCING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 66W-70W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-73W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
31N55W AND PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA N OF 23N
BETWEEN 50W-65W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 55W-80W ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH JUST W OF
BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E ATLC TO 18N
BETWEEN 25W-50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N32W ALONG 27N36W TO 23N42W AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N33W TO BEYOND 32N28W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH ABOUT 200
NM ENE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA WILL MOVE
NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WED BEFORE TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY CONTINUING N THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW ATLC FRI.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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