[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 33.4W AT 26/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 520 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 14N33W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 32W-35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED 17N45W TO 10N43W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS
WITH LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 12N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N22W TO 9N23W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
11N22W TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W AND FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US AND
INTO THE GULF N OF 25N GIVING MOST OF THE GULF W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT. MOST OF GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR. A SMALL UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-88W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W ALONG 27N86W TO 24N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUING S TO S MEXICO IN THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N
GULF LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING N
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF
75W TO THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA AND COUPLED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
13N W OF 69W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER LOW LOCATED N OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH S OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO HAITI. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N79W
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W 26N79W TO BEYOND 32N76W TO OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SE US. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED
ABOUT 200 NM E OF BERMUDA PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE
AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-76W AND A SWATH OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND WITHIN 150 NM TO THE E. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SW ATLC N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
24N72W TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 65W-69W
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA S OF 24N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HAITI. THE
REMNANTS OF OPHELIA REMAIN AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
21N56W THROUGH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 18N60W CONTINUING S OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 12N62W IN
THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N53W
TO 20N60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF W
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-78W ANCHORED BY 1021
MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E ATLC
TO 21N BETWEEN 30W-53W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 28N39W TO 25N46W AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM E
OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N34W TO 32N26W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU.
THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...1011 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SW
ATLC BY EARLY TUE AND SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD REMAINING E OF 70W
THROUGH FRI. THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS W
TROPICAL ATLC BY WED MORNING AND REACH THE E CARIBBEAN THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net