[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 60.4W AT 25/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OPHELIA REMAINS UNDER
STRONG SW SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 30.7W AT 25/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-32W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N42W TO 9N41W MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE REMAINS BETWEEN TROPICAL STORMS OPHELIA AND PHILIPPE AND IS
WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. THERE ARE NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
19N16W TO 16N19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-16N BETWEEN 12W-20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 28N84W 24N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF
THE TROUGH CENTER FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 83W-86W TO INCLUDE THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W GULF W OF 88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W
GULF AND S TEXAS ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...IN 24
HOURS FOR THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER S LOUISIANA. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A  MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-85W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 64W-68W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
NEAR JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 74W-77W. EXPECT THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FROM OPHELIA TO BE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N78W 26N78W 22N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N65W. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 30W-43W. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N12W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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