[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 15N
BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINFALL TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...AND
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 53W. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 5 TO 10 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
20W.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W. IT
IS BROKEN UP BY THE 17W/18W TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 14N19W TO 9N27W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N38W...CURVING TO 9N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE ALABAMA...TO THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE FROM CENTRAL MEXICO...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 89W FROM 27N NORTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO
THE EAST OF 90W...IN SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AFTERNOON
HEATING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...REMAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N68W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS TO 22N74W...
...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 18N79W AND 17N83W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ALREADY-
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...COVERS THE AREA FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO THE SOUTHERN
COASTS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA BETWEEN 72W AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTAL JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM 14N TO 22N.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W...TO
WESTERN PANAMA...AND BEYOND THE PANAMA BORDER WITH COSTA RICA.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 74W AND COASTAL
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 66W.
THE TROUGH WAS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 24 HOURS AGO.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC
FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 1.59 INCHES...FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS IT WAS 0.54 INCHES...AND IN BARBADOS TOTAL RAINFALL FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD WAS 0.38 INCHES. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W...ABOUT
85 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 65 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO THE NORTH OF VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA BETWEEN 67W AND 73W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N55W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ARE SHEARING THIS SYSTEM. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS REMAIN FROM
15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE BAHAMAS TO 22N74W......ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 18N79W
AND 17N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N61W. THIS CENTER
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO THAT
EXTENDED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 31N39W TO 22N46W AND 11N55W. WINDS FROM THIS
TROUGH ARE SHEARING THE 17N55W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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