[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 161433
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

MARIA IS BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS ROTATED NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH THE CLOUD
TOPS WARMING.  DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 65 KT.  CANADIAN BUOY REPORTED
985.4 MB AT 12Z WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF WIND...WHICH IS THE SOURCE OF
THE 983 MB INITIAL PRESSURE.  MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY...AND
WEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO COLD WATER. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE SLOWER
THAN USUAL DUE TO THE EXTREME FORWARD MOTION...WHICH IS REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

MARIA IS MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED AROUND 50
KT ACROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING
ABSORBED BY 24 HOURS WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ONLY
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND COULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE IF THE CENTER MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 44.6N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 50.5N  49.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN


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