[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 68.4W AT 15/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 280 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 64W-70W AND FROM 23N-36N BETWEEN
66W-59W. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH
TODAY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W THEN S THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N22W ALONG 11N31W TO 8N42W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 7N45W ALONG 7N49W TO INLAND OVER GUYANA SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 11N16W TO 7N20W
AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF 6N BETWEEN 20W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 12N
BETWEEN 21W-34W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N BETWEEN 50W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS E
OVER THE GULF TO 88W WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ESTABLISHED DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA GIVING THE GULF REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF BY A
1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N90W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF EARLY THU
NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE W ATLC SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 75W-83W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 12N BETWEEN 64W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
18N71W TO 14N72W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM 12N73W TO
COAST RICA NEAR 10N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
W-NW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE W ATLC...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 72W WITH ESTABLISHED DRY
STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA GIVING THE W ATLC W OF 73W REMARKABLY
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF SE FLORIDA S OF MIAMI AND THE UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE SE OF MARIA CENTERED
NEAR 21N51W COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-30N BETWEEN 40W-62W
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-53W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 63W WITH A 1026
MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N51W. TROPICAL STORM
MARIA WILL MOVE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM S OF MARIA TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY THU AFTERNOON THEN
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE WNW TO 31N75W TO 21N80W BY LATE MON AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ALONG THE U.S. E COAST.A FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW ATLC OF SAT THEN DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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