[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 150236
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
MARIA A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND PEAK SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 56
KT AND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT.  LEANING A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE SFMR DATA...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG...AND THE SEA
SURFACE DOES NOT COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...UNTIL ABOUT 36 HOURS.  MARIA
HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  MARIA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS AS GLOBAL
MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY
THAT TIME.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A MOTION SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH AT AROUND 16 KT.  MARIA IS MOVING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CONTINUED
ACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE GFS MODEL
TRACK.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 28.0N  68.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 31.3N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 36.2N  64.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 41.8N  57.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 48.0N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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