[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 142039
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS FROM THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE
CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE.  WITH
THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS...SOME INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MARIA HAS MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM
WATER.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE LAST
ADVISORY...SHOWING A PEAK NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO THE NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  MARIA SHOULD
BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO
VERY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD WATER...AND BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BY DAY 3.

MARIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 13 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIVING
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE
SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH...AND LIE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS.  THE NHC FORECAST LEANS ON
THOSE TOP-PERFORMING MODELS...AND ENDS UP A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 26.3N  69.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 29.2N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 33.8N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 39.0N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 45.0N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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