[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 67.5W AT 13/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 310 NM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 680 NM
S-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
MARIA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS SE
OF THE CENTER FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 63W-67W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N55W TO
11N59W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IN
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS
BENEATH OUT FLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIA AND AN UPPER LOW TO
THE N ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N59W TO 22N53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S
OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND S GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N21W 11N31W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
9N38W TO 7N42W. THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO CONVERGING NE/SE
FLOW...SO NO ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 19W
TO INLAND OVER GUINEA-BISSAU...GAMBIA...AND SENEGAL. SMALL
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 29W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E CONUS INTO THE GULF N OF 23N
USHERING IN DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N GULF GIVING THE AREA N OF
25N REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 85W-95W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE N GULF
THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NE CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 18N87W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 20N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN
75W-82W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA HAVE MOVED INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 67W-80W.
THE TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TUE CROSSING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED REACHING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N
OF 24N W OF 75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W
TO BEYOND 32N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA NEAR
27N65W. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N37W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N39W GENERATING ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 40W-47W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC N OF 15N E OF 50W AND N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-75W WITH A 1024
MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N55W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
30N34W. TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL MOVE NW THROUGH LATE TUE THEN
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND BE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE WED. A
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE W ATLC THU THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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