[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 110247
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER.
THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 2349Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE IN THE CORE REGION.  THE INITIAL WINDS WILL
STAY 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOULD BE IN THE AREA AROUND 0600 UTC.  GIVEN
THE DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT...LIGHT SHEAR...AND THE IMPROVED
CENTRAL FEATURES...SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  ALL OF THE
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE NATE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE NEW NHC
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED TIME INTERVALS...NATE IS EXPECTED
TO BE A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

BEST ESTIMATE OF MOTION IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...265/5.
MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE THAT MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL IN A
LITTLE LESS THAN A DAY.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.   THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY
BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 20.0N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 19.8N  95.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 19.7N  97.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z 19.7N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



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