[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 10/0300 UTC IS NEAR
20.1N 93.2W...OR ABOUT 190 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING WESTWARD 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 10/0300 UTC IS NEAR 15.1N
59.5W...OR ABOUT 110 NM TO THE NORTH OF BARBADOS...AND 155 NM
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N
TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 64W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 10/0300 UTC IS NEAR 41.3N
58.0W...OR ABOUT 265 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX
NOVA SCOTIA. IT IS EAST-NORTHEAST 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KATIA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 41N TO 43N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N36W 12N40W 5N44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 31W
AND 44W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W...AND FROM 3N TO
12N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.

A WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N76W
14N77W 10N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND
75W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 73W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N16W
TO 9N18W AND 12N27W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N
TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W...AND WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
6N22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM NATE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 20N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS FROM AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG
THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 28N83W TO 26N87W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS OF 28N83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...ACROSS CUBA...
TO 18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  NEAR 23N77WTHE OUTER WIND BANDS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N62W
CYCLONIC CENTER TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 26N79W 32N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N21W TO 27N24W...
TO A 27N37W CYCLONIC CENTER...20N43W...AND 22N44W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N30W...AND AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N44W. THE WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN
TO NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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