[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 090850
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AS INDICATED BY BUOY 41101 WHICH RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
CHECK MARIA AROUND 1200 UTC. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT AS HOSTILE AS IT WAS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT
MORE AGGRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUCH GUIDANCE.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS GLOBAL
MODELS NOW FORECAST A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. ON THAT BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BUT IT IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CASE MODELS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH IN THE
NEXT CYCLE.  GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 13.8N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.5N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 16.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 17.5N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 19.0N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 22.0N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 24.0N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 27.0N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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