[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM NATE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 92.2W AT 09/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 95 NM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 155 NM NE OF
COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. NATE IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W-95W.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 55.5W AT 09/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 315 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 18 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARIA APPEARS
RATHER DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF ACTIVITY. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE
FROM 11N49W 16N53W TO 13N58W INCLUDING BARBADOS. THESE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
NIGHT TONIGHT.

HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 36.3N 68.8W AT 09/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 315 NM NW OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 550 NM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA MOVING NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NE SEMICIRLCE. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 16N29W TO
3N35W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 11N-15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W S OF
23N MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS.
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 21N17W TO 18N21W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS HAS
BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE LACK OF CONFLUENCE IN THE TRADE WINDS AND
THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM 5N38W TO 10N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN THE BORDER OF
LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE AND GAMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE S GULF WATERS IS TROPICAL STORM
NATE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE N GULF N OF 26N AND SUPPORTING A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 09/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF
WATERS BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 26N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NE
ACROSS S FLORIDA ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
NATE. DRY AIR ALOFT IS NW OF A LINE FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO GIVING THAT AREA REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN TONIGHT. NATE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND DRIFT NW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO BY MON EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ALONG
10N78W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-77W. THE DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS
CONFINED TO NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 80W-87W LEAVING THAT
AREA UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND
JAMAICA HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH CLUSTERS N OF
16N BETWEEN 68W-80W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN E OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS TO ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD S OF NORTH CAROLINA TO NE FLORIDA SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N74W TO 30N76W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND MELBOURNE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 74W-79W. A WEAKENING CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 23N61W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N65W TO
25N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
INTO E ATLC BETWEEN 25W-45W N OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 30N35W TO 26N40W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
75 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING
TO THE BUILD W IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE KATIA ANCHORED BY A 1023
MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A WEAK
1019 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 27N30W. THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG 27N THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN LIFT N TO
ALONG 30N SAT THROUGH SUN THEN N OF THE AREA ON MON. TROPICAL
STORM MARIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT THEN E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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