[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 081443
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

MARIA IS MOVING VERY FAST...AT ABOUT 19-22 KNOTS...AND PROBABLY NO
LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL CHECK IF THAT IS THE CASE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND
CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE RAINBANDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS AND THIS
IS THE INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
WAVE...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
REGENERATE AS IT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS
HOSTILE AS THEY WERE INDICATING IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW AN AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN.

MARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS
FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
AFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 13.0N  51.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 13.0N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 13.8N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 14.5N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 16.0N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 19.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 22.5N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 25.0N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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