[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 07/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.9N
69.7W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 291 NM WSW OF BERMUDA. KATIA IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 66W-80W.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 07/2100 UTC IS NEAR 13.2N 44.2W. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 1047 NW E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MARIA IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
42W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 41W-45W.

TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 07/2100 UTC IS NEAR 20.2N 92.4W. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 109 NM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO...OR ABOUT 165 NM
NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING ESE AT 2 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER E OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
87W-90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W/26W TO
THE SOUTH OF 14N. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 2N-16N E 0F 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-12N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 54W-66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AND IS NOT ANALYZED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. LIKEWISE THERE IS NO ITCZ OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFLUENCE IN THE TRADEWIND
REGIMES. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 10W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 28W-33W...AND FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM NATE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20.2N 92.4W. SEE ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 29N80W 25N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 85W. FAIR WEATHER
IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT NATE TO REMAIN
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. ALSO EXPECT THE
FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA JAMAICA...AND CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N  COLOMBIA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN... AND FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE KATIA...TROPICAL STORM MARIA...AND THE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N55W. ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 40N18W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N38W TO 25N42W PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS AND NO
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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