[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071824
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 07/1500 UTC IS NEAR 29.4N
69.1W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 280 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.
OTHER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND
70W.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DEVELOPED AT 07/1500 UTC...AND ITS CENTER
IS NEAR 13.0N 42.0W. MARIA IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 38W AND 44W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W.

A 1007 MB GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N93W.
IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
THE COAST TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. THIS LOW CENTER IS AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW CENTER TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 12N
BETWEEN 17W AND 32W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA IS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE 24W
TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AND IT IS NOT ANALYZED
ON THE MAP. THE ITCZ HAS NOT BEEN ANALYZED ON THE MAP BECAUSE
OF THE LACK OF CONFLUENCE OF THE TRADEWIND REGIMES. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN
17W AND 32W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS DRIVING THE CURRENT COLD
FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N81W IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 29N81W AND THEN IT CONTINUES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY TO THE 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W.
COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 80W.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT
IS MOVING AWAY FROM HURRICANE KATIA. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 18N59W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W
AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 72W
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONFLUENT SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND
84W IN PANAMA. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 57W...FROM 32N TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N57W...TO 18N59W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W
AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 21N
TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 46W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N37W...TO 31N38W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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