[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.9N 62.0W AT 05/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 350 NM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 525
NM S-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 62W-64W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-65W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N29W TO
5N27W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W
OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-13N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
19N45W TO 14N42W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH DRIER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE WAVE
AXIS. WAVE REMAINS LOCATED AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
IS GENERATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE ITSELF.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL TO 13N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS
ANALYZED FROM 8N48W 9N52W TO GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 12W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF LEE CONTINUES TO GENERATE BANDS OF SCATTERED/
HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N
E OF 91W AND INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST E OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TO NE FLORIDA. AT 05/0900 UTC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF
WATERS NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S
OF CORPUS CHRISTI WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS S
TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF WATERS JUST
E OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N92W TO 24N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E GULF. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE S COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BETWEEN EL
SALVADOR TO NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N BETWEEN
91W-95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE W GULF TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY FROM NE GULF TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED THROUGH
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TIP
OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GIVING THE NW
CARIBBEAN NE FLOW ALOFT GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO THE COAST
OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY E OF 73W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. WHILE HURRICANE KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AWAY
FROM TROPICAL ATLC. THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE
GREATER ANTILLES...AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
MORE INFORMATION. THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NORTHERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N W OF
79W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE KATIA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC INTO THE TROPICS
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N25W SW TO
16N41W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 20N WITH A
WEAKNESS SURROUNDING HURRICANE KATIA AND ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N51W. HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE W ATLC THROUGH WED MOVING N OF THE AREA THU MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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