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WTNT33 KNHC 042056
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 91.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM WEST OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LEE MAY BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI BY LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...
445 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER.
A NOAA BUOY JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...57 KM/H AND A
GUST TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H. SEVERAL OFFSHORE OIL RIGS ALSO CONTINUE
TO REPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF LEE.

A STORM SURGE VALUE OF MORE THAN 2 FEET RECENTLY OCCURRED JUST SOUTH
OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AT AMERADA PASS.

REPORTS FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECEDE DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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