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WTNT33 KNHC 031150
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
700 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE STRENGTHENING...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR
7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES WELL INLAND OVER LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  RECENTLY AN OIL
RIG JUST SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
58 MPH AND A GUST TO 67 MPH AT 200 FEET ELEVATION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM
OIL RIGS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. A STORM
SURGE OF NEAR 4 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA...AND A SURGE HEIGHT OF 2.4 FEET WAS REPORTED AT GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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