[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR 15.0N
44.4W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 1012 NM E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 42W-46W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N88W TO
TO N GUATEMALA AT 17N91W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
90W-93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO...W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 81W-89W. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER THURSDAY...AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 18N MOVING W
AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 20N E OF 27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS AFRICA NEAR 18N16W AND EXTENDS SW TO
10N18W 5N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N
W OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND CONVECTION TO SPREAD NW OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NW VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA DUE
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA
TO N COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS HURRICANE KATIA IN THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE A PROMINENT SURFACE
TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N54W TO
23N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN
52W-56W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N41W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N13W TO
30N18W TO 30N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT KATIA TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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