[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310548 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

CORRECTED FOR DATE AND TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
12N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
12N20W TO 08N30W TO 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 17W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 44W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA AND
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO A BASE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
23N99W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DRY AIR AND MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING REMAINS UNDER DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER
FARTHER EAST...AS OF 31/0300 UTC A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N85W TO THE NE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND PROVIDE THE
SE GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA STRAITS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
MAINLY S OF 27N E OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ON
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY N OF 27N E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...N
TO NE WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGHING MOVES EASTWARD...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE
GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND NE TO E WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 28N59W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTER OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 16N85W. WEST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 18N86W. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 10N80W TO 20N84W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE STRONGER
CONVECTION THIS EVENING S OF 14N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
81W. THIS STRONGER PRECIPITATION WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING TO EASTERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA OVERNIGHT. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 14N71W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADDED MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 62W-71W...AND S OF
13N BETWEEN 68W-76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N59W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N61W SW ALONG 27N70W
TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH AND EAST...AND WITHIN 180 NM NORTH AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N36W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...HOWEVER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
14N51W TO 21N47W AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 18N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 40W-44W...AND FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 44W-52W. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 31/0044 UTC DEPICTED 20-25 KT NE TO E
WINDS NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 38W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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