[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
13N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
13N18W TO 05N26W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 19W-30W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN
47W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NE CONUS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF ALONG
29N90W TO A BASE NEAR 21N97W. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY LINKED TO
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...AS OF 30/0300 UTC A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR 22N88W AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NW
OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT PREVAIL ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 30N94W TO 21N98W
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 33N91W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
SE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SE CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN W OF 70W FALLS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N64W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CENTER OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 15N81W. WEST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED AND ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY
TRADES FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N82W TO 20N83W
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 73W-78W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF 78W...
INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONVECTIVELY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...PASSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY E OF A LINE FROM 18N69W TO 11N64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN US SEABOARD INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W THAT CONTINUES SW
TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE FRONT DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EAST...AND 75 NM WEST OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
33N32W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N43W. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR OVERALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...HOWEVER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 18N43W TO 26N43W AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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