[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER WEST AFRICA AND ENTERS THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W. IT CONTINUES S ALONG 13N18W 6N18W 3N25W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N25W TO 4N30W 8N40W 6N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-30W...
AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 44W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA
TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N80W 23N83W 18N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT
OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO S OF 27N. CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE N GULF AND THE
NORTH GULF STATES N OF 27N. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF MOVING E. THIS
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE GULF
STARTING IN 24 HOURS. IN THE MEANWHILE...EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN FROM 19N83W 13N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 79W-86W. FURTHER S...A MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 73W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W
TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE N BAHAMAS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SW TO 24N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 27N43W 19N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 37W-41W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N66W TO S FLORIDA WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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