[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST ALONG 13N/14N
AND 16W/17W NEAR THE SENEGAL/GAMBIA BORDER. IT CURVES TO 12N18W
6N18W AND 3N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N27W TO 6N34W 8N41W
AND 6N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 6W AND 30W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A COLD FRONT...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
GUATEMALA...THROUGH 21N93W 25N90W BEYOND 32N79W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS CYCLONIC FLOW LAGS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N86W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CURVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE PENINSULA...
AND EVENTUALLY CURVING INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS IN
ONE PRECIPITATION CELL ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT FROM THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO 22N98W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
EASTERN MEXICO AND 19N97W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 12N TO 20N. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W 11N81W...
BEYOND 10N IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 74W. A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 14N53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N61W IN THE
MARTINIQUE PASSAGE. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 15N61W TO 15N67W...TO 14N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
8N TO 18N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W. PASSING RAINSHOWERS IN THE
EASTERLY SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW HELPED TO GIVE SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.69 INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT
ENDED AT 29/1200 UTC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT WAS IN PLACE
DURING THE TIME OF RINA...REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS... INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BEYOND 32N CROSSING 70W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N43W
SOUTHWESTWARD...THROUGH 21N61W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 33N25W
TO 30N36W...26N40W...TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 22N41W. A WEAKENING TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N41W TO
18N50W 14N53W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
15N61W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N61W
TO 15N67W...TO 14N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS ARE REACHING
THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THAT ARE IN THIS AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 19N TO 28N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 38W AND 39W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
21N TO 26N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N43W TO 32N50W 28N63W AND 26N71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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