[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
DAKAR SENEGAL. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W ALONG 5N27W TO 7N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
37W-43W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
12W-23W AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N23W TO 11N37W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF W OF 85W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 29/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA ALONG 24N89W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
THEN EXTENDS NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF RINA IS A 1009 MB LOW
THAT AT 29/0300 UTC IS CENTERED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N84W TO
23N86W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO EVERGLADES CITY TO KEY WEST
FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N E OF 84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF LINE FROM
28N87W TO THE W TIP OF CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT
EVENING THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY SUN THROUGH EARLY MON THEN
PUSH S ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN LATER
MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE E GULF
OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF RINA IS A 1009 MB LOW THAT
AT 29/0300 UTC IS CENTERED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 18N81W 15N82W TO
12N81W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF
12N TO OVER CUBA AND HAITI BETWEEN 73W-86W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG
12N79W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR
10N83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W
OF 71W TO OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. REMNANTS OF RINA
WILL DRIFT NE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT S INTO
LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE SW SUN AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA TO
BEYOND 32N68W COVERING THE W ATLC AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO OVER CUBA W OF 76W TO
OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 74W TO OVER
NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 33N28W THROUGH A 1023 MB
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W TO ALONG 30N70W AND WITH
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N40W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW
NEAR 22N42W TO 21N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N38W TO
25N40W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM 17N45W TO 14N51W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE
FLORIDA EARLY SAT BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM JUST E OF
BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA SUN AND LIFT NORTHWARD MON AS LOW PRES
FORMS ON THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL TRACK QUICKLY
NE WITH A NEW COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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