[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 280241
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
LOWER THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH
SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH
LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN. MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO
THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 20.5N  87.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 21.5N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  29/1200Z 21.0N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 20.0N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z 19.5N  86.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 18.0N  86.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z 17.0N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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