[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 87.0W AT 27/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 115 MILES/190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 MILES/
145 KM E-NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE RINA APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE WEAKENING AND
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW
BARELY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45/60 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N86.5W WITH
SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-22N W
OF 84W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 11N18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N E OF 32W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOST DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE RINA WHICH IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SE
GULF TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25 E OF 89W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC OVER THE SE
CONUS INCLUDING THE N GULF AND WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING QUICKLY
REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI
NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH HURRICANE RINA CURRENTLY IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. HURRICANE RINA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
AS IT MOVES TO OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI NIGHT WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATE
MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RINA IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS AGAIN TONIGHT...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA EXTENDS ACROSS MOST
OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-83W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF 67W AND COUPLED WITH THE
CONVERGENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND THE FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N BETWEEN
70W-83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 12N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N84W. HURRICANE RINA WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES TO OVER THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI NIGHT
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATE MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W TO 24N72W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N W OF 42W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W ALONG 27N51W TO 25N56W
DISSIPATING TO NEAR 24N67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF COLD FRONT. A
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO OVER
THE SE CONUS AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH OVER BERMUDA AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE
AREA N OF THE FRONT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY
A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N25W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N39W TO A SECOND
UPPER LOW NEAR 14N58W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 20N36W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO 10N48W.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N29W TO 22N38W
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 9N53W TO ACROSS TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N49W ALONG 13N42W TO
16N43W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRI NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
WESTERN CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT THEN THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
BY SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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