[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 86.6W AT 27/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 105 NM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 96 NM E OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
18N BETWEEN 86W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-21N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA BUT DOES NOT ENTER THE
E TROPICAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 2W-30W INCLUDING THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOST DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE RINA WHICH IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SE
GULF TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25 E OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS DOMINATES THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE W
ATLC AND WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN THU IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
QUICKLY REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH HURRICANE RINA
CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY FRI THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM AS IT TURNS NE BY EARLY FRI NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER NW CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT WEAKENING FURTHER
TO A DEPRESSION THROUGH BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RINA IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS AGAIN TONIGHT...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA EXTENDS ACROSS MOST
OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED SE OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N75W
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-82W WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW HAITI NEAR 18N74W TO 12N75W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF 65W AND COUPLED WITH
THE CONVERGENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND THE FLOW ALOFT ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-21N
W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN
RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N75W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 11N84W. HURRICANE RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY FRI THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM AS IT TURNS NE BY EARLY FRI NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER NW CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT WEAKENING FURTHER
TO A DEPRESSION THROUGH BY MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W TO 24N72W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N W OF 45W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N45W ALONG 27N50W TO 25N58W
DISSIPATING TO NEAR 24N65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO
OVER THE SE CONUS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS GIVING THE AREA N OF THE FRONT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE FRONT AND
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N28W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N39W TO
A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 14N58W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N35W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N44W TO
10N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N27W TO 21N37W AND FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 39W-43W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E TO
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM E OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUN
INTO MON. A LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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