[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 270242
TCDAT3

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED
OFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN
FACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS
DATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH
JUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI
IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY
THE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
RINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA
APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

RINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN.
THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE
THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR
YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 18.5N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 19.2N  86.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 20.4N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 21.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 22.0N  86.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 22.5N  85.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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